Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Will The Younger Generation Be Able to Afford a Home?

Many economists will not commit to announcing a housing recovery in the US.  It seems that for every positive indicator (supply of inventory, major market price appreciation, drop in foreclosures), there are negative indicators (rate increases, increased mortgage regulation, prospect of inflation) to balance the equation.  Realtors understand a theorem that ‘all real estate is local.’  While that’s true and recovery can often be neighborhood-specific, there are global forces at work that are more difficult to manage. 

I read an article this morning (http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/27895-globalization-could-be-stunting-the-housing-recovery) wherein the economist projects that the younger generation will be unable to afford purchasing a home.  His thesis is simple:  With median household income falling and the globalization of jobs (i.e., sending jobs outside the US), the future buyer's income will dry up.  Harsh?  

I have long held the opinion that the link between jobs and home purchasing is more important than what new regulation is coming down the line affecting mortgages. After all, people were still buying houses back in the day at 18% interest rates and have not stopped shopping more recently as credit became harder to find.  It’s not rocket science:  no job, no income, no savings, no down payment, no home.  I understand what the economist is trying to say.  Even if globalization is more focused on off-shoring lower paying manufacturing jobs, the entire economy is still affected.  

So, what's the answer?  People who have been sitting on the sidelines of politics need to get more involved.  This country needs jobs! I heard a report today that 1.5 MILLION more people are unemployed than this time last year.  I'm not sure how to correlate that to the government reports of declining unemployment rates.  Many say that folks are just giving up on looking for employment.  It's a confusing time.  However, one thing is certain.  The traditional "American Dream" has always included owning your own home.  It would be a travesty for the younger generation to miss out on that opportunity.

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